ARTICLE - "Iran: Back to the Norm" for War and Peace
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ARTICLE
Substack article: "Iran: Back to the Norm" for War and PeaceDated:
Apr 03, 2026
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DERIVED WORKS
- Press release: 04/06/26 - EIN Presswire | Distribution report
- X postings: 4/6/26 | 4/8/26 | 4/10/26
REFERENCES
The Perfectly Tied Knot Now Tangled
Inside the Operation That Killed Khamenei (Article) https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/inside-the-operation-that-killed-khamenei-03eebbad The unexpected daylight attack, Operation Genesis, killed Khamenei and was the opening blow in Israel and the U.S.’s war with Iran. U.S. Forces Launch Operation Epic Fury https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4418396/us-forces-launch-operation-epic-fury/ U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commenced Operation Epic Fury, Feb. 28, at the direction of the President of the United States. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz between 2014 and 2024 https://www.statista.com/statistics/277157/key-figures-for-the-strait-of-hormuz/ One fifth of global oil supply flows through this passage, and there is no viable alternative for the transport of oil from the region. Which Iranian Leaders Have Been Killed and Who Survived? https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-and-israel-exact-heavy-toll-on-irans-leaders-8320addf Here’s a look at the Iranian leaders who have died in the assault, and those who have survived.
The Strategy That Untangles the Knot
Theocracy Countries 2026 https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/theocracy-countries Theocracies stand in contrast to other forms of government such as democracies, in which the power belongs to the people; as well as monarchies, in which a single human person rules; and oligarchies, which are ruled by a small group of people (typically wealthy elites) but which lacks a spiritual component. Iranian Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution The revolution led to the replacement of the Imperial State of Iran by the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the monarchical government of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was superseded by Ruhollah Khomeini, an Islamist cleric who had headed one of the rebel factions. History of the Islamic Republic of Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran Its constitution was approved in 1979 and amended in 1989. Jaafari (Usuli) school of thought is the official religion. Theocratic bodies supervise the government which has an elected president and elected governmental bodies at the national, provincial and local levels. All male and female citizens from the age of 18 on up may vote for candidates approved by the Council of Guardians which had veto power over who can run for parliament (the Islamic Consultative Assembly) and whether its bills can become law. Once, Israel and Iran were allies – even under the ayatollahs https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/06/22/once-israel-and-iran-were-allies-even-under-the-ayatollahs_6742603_4.html Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled in Tehran from 1941 to 1979, de facto recognized Israel in 1950, two years after it was established. He made that recognition official and public in 1960. Little Satan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Satan Great Satan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Satan MEMRI analysis of Khamenei’s doctrine https://www.memri.org/reports/irans-hostility-towards-us-%E2%80%93-contrasting-outlooks-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-and-regime The Islamic Republic of Iran's hostility to the U.S. … is framed as a religious principle.” Conflict between the Islamic Republic and the US, an inherent conflict https://english.khamenei.ir/news/11974/Conflict-between-the-Islamic-Republic-and-the-US-an-inherent (Copilot summary) Both Khomeini and Khamenei explicitly frame hostility toward the U.S. and Israel as a religious duty, rooted in God’s command, rather than personal hatred. Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 12, 2026 https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-12-2026/ Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on March 12 after the Assembly of Experts selected him as the new supreme leader on March 8. Khamenei reaffirmed the regime’s commitment to Iran’s war effort in order to achieve Iran’s long-standing objectives, including the erosion and eventual expulsion of American influence from the Middle East and the destruction of the Israeli state.
Tying the Theocratic Pillar
Aggressive New Digital Repression in Iran in the Era of the Woman, Life, Freedom Uprisings https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/11/new-digital-dilemmas-resisting-autocrats-navigating-geopolitics-confronting-platforms#aggressive-new-digital-repression-in-iran-in-the-era-of-the-woman-life-freedom-uprisings The tragic death of Jhina (Mahsa) Amini due to beatings while in the custody of Iran’s morality police precipitated a massive popular uprising in the country in September 2022. Analytical Report on “Iranians’ Political Preferences in 2024” https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-political-preferences-in-2024/ A significant majority of Iranians (around 70%) oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic. The highest level of opposition (81%) occurred during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising. 'Over 90% of Iranians hate the regime,' INSS’s Beni Sabti reveals from leaked Iran survey https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-883465 In November 2025, IranWire reported that a poll conducted by the Iranian Student Polling Agency (ISPA) on behalf of the administration found “public dissatisfaction with conditions in Iran has reached 92 per cent,” after details were published by a presidential office communications official. Disappeared bodies, mass burials and ‘30,000 dead’: what is the truth of Iran’s death toll? https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/jan/27/iran-protests-death-toll-disappeared-bodies-mass-burials-30000-dead Estimates of the number killed vary substantially, hampered by the ongoing internet shutdown. The Iranian government has acknowledged more than 3,000 dead, and the US-based organisation HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), whose figures have been reliable during previous crackdowns, says it has verified more than 6,000 dead and has more than 17,000 more recorded deaths under investigation, giving a possible total of about 22,000. Other estimates from doctors based outside Iran range up to 33,000 or more.
Institutional Elimination to the Theocratic Pillar
Diplomatic Isolation to the Theocratic Pillar
Iran state TV says ceasefire with US to expire at midnight GMT https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/566433/World/Region/Iran-state-TV-says-ceasefire-with-US-to-expire-at-.aspx Pakistan has invited the warring sides to a second round of talks in Islamabad, but Iran has yet to formally respond. US-Iran talks: What’s the latest on mediation efforts? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/us-iran-talks-whats-the-latest-on-mediation-efforts Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the leader of Tehran’s delegation, said it raised “forward-looking” initiatives, but the US had failed to gain the trust of his delegation in the talks. Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing ‘seriously fractured’ Iranian government https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/trump-iran-war-ceasefire.html President Donald Trump extended the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, saying the extension was warranted due to Tehran’s government being “seriously fractured.”
Untying the Republican Pillar
Diplomatic Fare
Political Fare
Kinetic Fare
Decisive Fare
Overwhelming Strengths
Armed Opposition
Air Support
Armored Forces
Desertions, shortages and army-IRGC rift strain Iran’s military https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603127596 Iran's armed forces are facing acute supply shortages, rising desertions and deepening friction between the regular army (Artesh) and the Revolutionary Guards, according to informed sources who described a military system under growing strain as the war intensifies.
Expeditionary Forces
IRGC tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz 'not allowed' https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-888294 Vessels in the Gulf reported receiving messages warning that no ships were allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz, according to EU and UK agencies, though Iran has not confirmed any closure. Iran says will attack any ship trying to pass through Strait of Hormuz https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/2/iran-says-will-attack-any-ship-trying-to-pass-through-strait-of-hormuz Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, reiterates that the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. Iran has laid about a dozen mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-laid-about-a-dozen-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz-sources-say Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two sources familiar with the matter said, in a move likely to complicate the reopening of the narrow waterway, which is an important route for shipping oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Iran War Traps 3,000 Ships and 20,000 Sailors in the Persian Gulf https://houseofsaud.com/iran-war-3000-ships-20000-sailors-stranded-persian-gulf/ The International Maritime Organization warned on Friday that more than 3,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. 2026 Iran war fuel crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_fuel_crisis Much of the world has been affected by panic buying and severe disruption to the distribution of petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and urea used for fertiliser. U.S. Navy Sinks Iranian Drone Carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri in Operation Epic Fury, Reshaping Gulf Naval Balance https://boltflight.com/u-s-navy-sinks-iranian-drone-carrier-iris-shahid-bagheri-in-operation-epic-fury-reshaping-gulf-naval-balance/#google_vignette US hits more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/03/14/us-hits-more-than-90-iranian-military-targets-on-kharg-island/ The US has carried out large-scale precision strikes on Kharg Island in Iran, hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets, US Central Command said on Saturday, as Tehran continues attacks on Gulf states. U.S. military launches strikes on Iran's Kharg Island https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776495/u-s-military-launches-strikes-on-irans-kharg-island The U.S. military has launched strikes on Iran's Kharg Island ahead of President Trump's deadline for the country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Islamabad Talks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Talks Aimed at stabilizing the 2026 Iran war ceasefire and negotiating a potential resolution to the 2026 Iran war, the talks were moderated by Pakistan, which played a central role in brokering the ceasefire and facilitating the talks. U.S., Iran and Israel Agree to Cease-Fire https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news/f1657559-8135-50c9-ad7f-63636e6a5106?smid=url-share The deal came shortly before President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastation. 2026 United States naval blockade of Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_naval_blockade_of_Iran On 13 April 2026, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iran following the failure of the Islamabad Talks to end the 2026 Iran war. Warpower: Iran 2015 - Regional Defence Review 2026 https://www.warpoweriran.com/ The WARPOWER series takes a unique, 'by-the-numbers', quick-reference approach to the current (2026) military capabilities of Iran.
The Strategy That Ties Everything Together
The Unifying Factor
The Stabilizing Factor
The Negotiation Factor
Iran offers Hormuz deal without nuclear talks, as it seeks broader buy-in https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/iran-offers-hormuz-deal-without-nuclear-talks-as-it-seeks-broader-buy-in Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has discussed with regional interlocutors a proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz but deferring talks with the US on Tehran’s nuclear programme for later.
The Knot Is Not
The Art of War: Sun Tzu’s Philosophy of Winning Without Fighting https://ancientwarhistory.com/the-art-of-war-sun-tzus-philosophy-of-winning-without-fighting/ Sun Tzu’s The Art of War stands as one of history’s most influential military treatises, yet its true genius lies not in teaching how to fight, but how to avoid fighting altogether.
The Government Clerics
Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardianship_of_the_Islamic_Jurist ... a concept in Iranian law which holds that until the reappearance of the "infallible Imam" (sometime before Judgement Day), the religious and social affairs of the Muslim world should be administered by righteous Shi'i jurists. The Declining Legitimacy Of Absolute Velayat-E Faqih: Security Implications for Iran, the Region, and the World https://trendsresearch.org/insight/the-declining-legitimacy-of-absolute-velayat-e-faqih-security-implications-for-iran-the-region-and-the-world/ This paper traces how a theological concept developed over centuries of Shia jurisprudence was transformed by Ayatollah Khomeini into the ideological backbone of a modern theocratic state and how that transformation has produced, over time, the very conditions that now threaten the doctrine’s survival. Iran: The new grand ayatollah upsetting the establishment https://www.irantimes.com/news/iran%3A-the-new-grand-ayatollah-upsetting-the-establishment The Iranian establishment has a problem: the emergence of a new grand ayatollah whose ideas have sparked both anger and curiosity, challenging the government in Tehran and offering support to the Mahsa Amini protest movement. Iran cleric voices support for right to protest against rulers https://www.arabnews.jp/en/middle-east/article_82784/ TEHRAN: A leading Iranian cleric has come out in support of the people’s right to protest against the country’s rulers, in a report published Friday, after demonstrations erupted over Mahsa Amini’s death. Analyzing Grand Ayatollah Sistani’s Statement Through the Lens of International Law https://1001iraqithoughts.com/2026/03/06/analyzing-grand-ayatollah-sistanis-statement-through-the-lens-of-international-law/ (Gemini summary) The most powerful quietist voice, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, issued a critical statement on March 4, 2026. While he condemned the "aggression" against Iran, his rhetoric was pointedly nationalist, not theocratic. By refusing to call for a "Jihad" to defend the system (Velayat-e Faqih), Sistani effectively signaled that the government clerics are on their own. This has emboldened Iranian quietists to suggest that a "return to the seminaries" is the only way to save the institution of the Clergy from the falling regime.
The Praetorian Forces
Iran’s new supreme leader is severely wounded and delegating responsibility to army generals, says report https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-supreme-leader-severely-injured-mojtaba-khamenei-b2964291.html Iran’s new supreme leader is gravely wounded and delegating responsibility to army generals in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to a report. Scenarios for Iran’s Future and Implications for GCC Security https://www.stimson.org/2026/scenarios-for-irans-future-and-implications-for-gcc-security The regime may harden into a more openly militarized order, what some analysts describe as an “IRGC Republic,” in which ideological rigidity and nationalist defiance overshadow any impulse toward reform. The Web of Patronage Keeping Iran’s Regime in Control https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guard-built-a-sophisticated-system-of-patronage-its-keeping-the-regime-alive-67d319e6 Decades of economic kickbacks, funneled through its paramilitaries, bind millions of loyalists to the Islamic Republic’s survival. U.S. Commander Tells IRGC Navy Forces to Abandon Posts https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-news-updates/card/u-s-commander-tells-irgc-navy-forces-to-abandon-posts-eraCo8diNBueWDoSyUov U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper called on every Iranian serving in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy to abandon their posts following the death of the service's leader, Adm. Alireza Tangsiri.
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel
Netanyahu the political survivor https://www.gatewayhouse.in/netanyahu-knesset-politics/ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has secured his political survival since October 7 by managing his key constituencies – domestic and in the U.S. – and doubling down on his war strategy. How Netanyahu Survives https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/how-netanyahu-survives. Divide and Conquer in Gaza and at Home Israel judicial reform explained: What is the crisis about? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871 (11 September 2023) Since the start of the year, huge weekly protests have been held by people opposed to the government's reform plans. The scale of the protests has escalated, with tens of thousands of people packing the streets in towns and cities across the country. With goals of Iran war unfulfilled, Israel's Netanyahu faces unhappy public as elections loom https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/with-goals-of-iran-war-unfulfilled-israels-netanyahu-faces-unhappy-public-as-elections-loom/ar-AA21MarC Iran’s government is still in power. Hezbollah and Hamas haven't been defeated. President Trump's interests may be diverging from Israel's. Wars with Iran and its proxies haven’t gone according to plan for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and that could mean trouble for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister in elections scheduled for later this year. Many Israelis are dissatisfied with the Netanyahu government’s wartime leadership, according to a recent poll. Swiss court orders Israel to pay up for Iranian oil https://www.timesofisrael.com/swiss-court-orders-israel-to-pay-up-for-iranian-oil/ Deal dates back to days of the shah and before the revolution, when Jerusalem and Tehran worked together to export oil to Europe. Benjamin Netanyahu's biggest rivals merge in bid to oust his government https://news.sky.com/story/benjamin-netanyahus-biggest-rivals-merge-in-bid-to-oust-his-government-13536977 Right-wing Naftali Bennett and centrist Yair Lapid issued statements announcing the merger of their parties. PROFILE: What Is the Amal Movement? Lebanon’s Other Shia Power Center https://www.palestinechronicle.com/profile-what-is-the-amal-movement-lebanons-other-shia-power-center/ Amal predates Hezbollah. Its roots lie in the political and social awakening led by Imam Musa al-Sadr, the Iranian-born Lebanese cleric who transformed Shia political life in Lebanon in the 1960s and 1970s. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) https://www.moderninsurgent.org/post/palestinian-islamic-jihad-pij The PIJ was founded in the Gaza Strip in 1984 and its militancy has always been militarily, politically and financially supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Following the view of the organization, rather than a nationalist core, the Palestine question has mainly religious importance and Islam is indissolubly related to the State of Palestine. Netzah Yehuda Battalion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netzah_Yehuda_Battalion The purpose of the unit is to allow Haredi Jewish men to serve as combat soldiers in the Israeli military by creating an atmosphere conducive to their religious convictions in the strict observance of Halakha. Israel court orders gov’t to penalise ultra-Orthodox Jews who refuse draft https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-court-orders-govt-to-penalise-ultra-orthodox-who-refuse-draft Israel’s Supreme Court on April 26 ordered the state to cut financial benefits to ultra-Orthodox Jews who refuse to answer conscription call-ups.
U.S. President Trump
With bombs and bravado, Trump puts his own stamp on Reagan’s ‘peace through strength’ mantle https://apnews.com/article/trump-peacemaker-wars-legacy-7017f99ef27c15aac727928395c853c1 It wasn’t so long ago that President Donald Trump spoke of building a legacy as a “peacemaker.” His administration would measure “success not only by the battles we win,” Trump said in his inaugural address, “but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” President Trump’s Clear and Unchanging Objectives Drive Decisive Success Against Iranian Regime https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/04/president-trumps-clear-and-unchanging-objectives-drive-decisive-success-against-iranian-regime/ Tonight, President Donald J. Trump will address the nation on Operation Epic Fury — a decisive campaign of American strength that is systematically dismantling the Iranian regime’s ability to threaten the United States and the free world. Alexander the Great’s Cut of the Gordian Knot: A Timeless Problem-Solving Symbol https://greekreporter.com/2025/10/05/alexander-the-great-gordian-knot/ The legendary cutting of the Gordian Knot by Alexander the Great became a metaphor for solving difficult problems by employing simple, drastic solutions. Iran’s Axis of Resistance https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/briefing/iran-israel-war-taiwan.html It is the network of Iran-backed groups across the Middle East dedicated to reducing U.S. influence in the region and ultimately eliminating the state of Israel ... The Axis of Resistance includes Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other groups ... In Places Trump Has Touted Bringing Peace, Conflict Still Rages https://time.com/7339536/trump-peace-deals-conflicts-status-thailand-cambodia/ Even as a cease-fire between Thailand and Cambodia brokered by President Donald Trump earlier this year is falling apart, the self-styled “President of Peace” has continued to tout his ability to resolve global conflicts. Iran offers Strait of Hormuz deal; Trump dissatisfied but prefers non-military path https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/02/trump-iran-strait-of-hormuz.html An Iranian proposal so far rejected by U.S. President Donald Trump would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade of Iran while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear program for later, a senior Iranian official said on Saturday. Trump’s Declaration for Peace and Prosperity: The Gaza Plan and the Road Ahead https://athens-times.com/trumps-declaration-for-peace-and-prosperity-the-gaza-plan-and-the-road-ahead/ Donald Trump has claimed credit for bringing long-awaited peace to Gaza after two years of war, celebrating in true Trump fashion by attending a ceremonial session at the Knesset, followed by a rare summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the so-called 'Gaza Agreement.' The End of the British Mandate: How Imperial Withdrawal Shaped the 1948 War https://explaininghistory.org/2025/11/16/the-end-of-the-british-mandate-how-imperial-withdrawal-shaped-the-1948-war/ By the close of World War II, the British Mandate in Palestine had become a toxic burden for London. Exhausted by years of war, mounting costs, and relentless unrest, Britain’s leaders concluded that holding on to Palestine was no longer tenable.
The People of Iran
Overthrow of Mosaddegh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Mosaddeghh In the aftermath of the overthrow, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi consolidated power and negotiated the Consortium Agreement of 1954 with the British, which gave split ownership of Iranian oil production between Iran and Western companies until 1979. Iranian Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution The Iranian Revolution, also known as the Islamic Revolution, culminated in the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979. The revolution led to the replacement of the Imperial State of Iran by the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the monarchical government of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was superseded by Ruhollah Khomeini, an Islamist cleric who had headed one of the rebel factions. Iranian economic crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis Domestic mismanagement, rampant corruption, geopolitical instability, and structural inefficiencies have all led to acute social discontent. Iran’s 2025–2026 Uprisings and the Legitimacy Crisis of the Islamic Republic https://nssa.byu.edu/irans-2025-2026-uprisings-and-the-legitimacy-crisis-of-the-islamic-republic The state’s response has been brutal. Although President Masoud Pezeshkian initially signaled a willingness to address protesters’ concerns, the government quickly reverted to repression, deploying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij forces to suppress the demonstrations.
CONCLUSION
Trump’s ‘Stone Ages’ threat against Iran harks back to a notorious Vietnam War declaration https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-stone-age-bombing-b2950890.html President’s channeling of legendary Strategic Air Command boss Curtis LeMay in his bomb Iran ‘back to the Stone Ages’ rhetoric is part of a longstanding campaign to delegitimize modern laws of war ... but ignores LeMay’s own judgments that his preferred tactics would be war crimes.






























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