Ukraine Conflict - The CUTTR Plan - Summary

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The CUTTR Plan assumes a stalemate in the Putinic War in Ukraine. It has two goals: expedite an immediate temporary truce and facilitate a subsequent peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia. The CUTTR Plan has 12 points and 2 outcomes.

TWELVE POINTS:

Point 1: The selling of Crimea
Ukraine shall sell Crimea to Russia, and Russia shall purchase Crimea from Ukraine. By the act of selling, Ukraine affirms its ownership of the peninsula since one cannot sell something one does not own. While Russia has the de facto control of Crimea, it does not have the internationally de jure recognition. By the act of purchasing, Russia will gain this recognition for perpetuity.

Point 2: The price of Crimea
It shall be one symbolic gold coin. This allows a truce to be declared. The value of Crimea will be in the concessions to be negotiated in the peace plan.

Point 3: The Kerch exception
Ukraine shall retain a small portion of the Kerch Peninsula, or an islet in the Kerch Strait. Such a Ukrainian presence will prevent Russia from declaring the Kerch Strait as an inner body of water, and legally blocking Ukrainian navigation to the Sea of Azov.

Point 4: The armed neutrality
Ukraine shall adopt an armed and engaged form of neutrality. It will maintain a strong armed force that will defend against any incursions from any of its neighbors. It will not join any military alliance, but at the same time, will sign new or strengthen existing amity pacts with all its neighbors, and be active in cooperative initiatives such as joint military exercises in common areas of interest such as cross-training, disaster response, peace-time environmental issues and civilian relationships.

Point 5: The Donbass re-integration
Russia shall disavow its recognition of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics, and shall facilitate their re-integration into the Ukrainian nation. This will be Russian concession for keeping Crimea legally.

Point 6: The Donbass demilitarization
Ukraine shall keep the re-integrated Donbass demilitarized. In return, Russia shall stop its military support to the Donbass insurgents. Ukraine will not have an armed forces presence in the Donbass for the number of negotiated years.

Point 7: The Donbass autonomy
Ukraine shall grant autonomy to the Donbass region. While the land will be unequivocally part of Ukraine, the administration of this land will be a form of self-governance, as outlined in the 2014 Minsk Protocol agreement.

Point 8: The Donbass native residency
Donbass residents shall be given the choice between Ukrainian citizenship and Russian citizenship with Ukrainian native residency. Donbass native residents will be considered Russian expatriates having Ukrainian permanent residency. The Donbass native residents will have all the rights and benefits bestowed to Ukrainian citizens, but in a local scope. They can vote locally but not nationally; they can run for local office but not national ones; they can own and inherit properties in Donbass, but outside of it, their rights will be like of ordinary expatriate permanent residents. The Donbass native residents will also receive the benefit of a constitutional national support for a Russian culture and education.

Point 9: The concessions in lieu of war reparations
There shall not be discussions about war reparations in the peace negotiations; the talks shall discuss only concessions to bind the two countries economically. The premise of the CUTTR Plan is that there is a stalemate, with no winner nor loser. War reparations imply otherwise

Point 10: The tariff concessions
Russia shall grant Ukraine a low or no tariff to access the Russian market for several decades. For Russia, this will economically bind Ukraine further to Russia. For Ukraine, this concession will help it rebuild its economy from the Putinic war's destruction. Not only will its domestic companies export cheaply into Russia, Ukraine will attract foreign companies to set up in Ukraine to take advantage of this side-door concession.

Point 11: The pipeline concessions
Russia shall sell an annual quota of oil and gas to Ukraine at cost for several decades. For Russia, this will economically bind Ukraine more closely to Russia. For Ukraine, this concession will be used for (1) lowering the cost of domestic heating and cooking, (2) transforming its various industries into the lowest cost manufacturers in Europe, (3) attracting foreign companies with the bargain energy, and (4) reselling the extra oil and gas to the European Union. The concessionary oil and gas will flow through the current network of Ukrainian pipelines with only one customer - Ukraine. Russia will be able to sell directly to the EU via the Nord Stream 2 undersea pipeline, to be completed without Ukrainian objections or other controversies. After those decades of recovery, Ukraine will be expected to switch to localized green energy, removing the Russian dependency.

Point 12: The economic gateways
As the gateway for European companies to enter Russia's market through the tariff concession, Ukraine shall also be the gateway for Russian companies to enter the European market via the favors that the EU will undoubtedly grant to Ukraine to help it recover from the war.

TWO OUTCOMES:

Outcome One: Victory for Russia
The Putinic conditions for ending the war have been presented: Ukraine neutrality and demilitarization, recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and recognition of Donbass as independent. Point 4 of the CUTTR Plan covers Ukraine neutrality. Although not full demilitarization, point 6 could be acceptable to Russia on the demilitarization demand. Points 1, 2 and 3 will have Ukrainian recognition of Crimea as part of Russia. Points 5, 6, 7 and 8 relate to the Donbass. While the land will be re-integrated into Ukraine (point 5), its administration will be some form of independence via autonomy (point 7), and its people will have self-governance rights via native residency (point 8). Points 9, 10, 11 and 12 will do double duty: they will tie Ukraine economically to Russia, and allow the Russian economy to be re-integrated to the world. The biggest cost for Russia will be oil and gas which Russia has aplenty.

Once a truce has been declared, Russia will relieve its sieges on Ukrainian cities, and will see relief from some economic sanctions in return. Once the peace agreement has been signed, Russia will withdraw all its troops from Ukraine, and all sanctions on Russia will be lifted, including those from 2014 when Russia took Crimea from Ukraine. Its war-ending conditions met or acceptable, Russia will declare victory.

Outcome Two: Victory for Ukraine
Ukrainian demands have been the end of the war, security guarantees, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The truce followed by peace negotiation will end the war. Sovereignty will be re-affirmed by selling Crimea (point 1) with the Kerch exception (point 3). The territorial integrity will be met with the re-integration of the Donbass region (point 5). Ukraine guarantees its own security by being militarily neutral (point 4), transforming itself as a useful buffer between NATO and Russia.

Its country in ruins, but Ukraine cannot force Russia to pay for war reparations because Russia is stalemated, not defeated (point 9). Leveraging Russian needs to have the sanctions removed and its economy re-integrated to the world, Ukraine will demand Russian concessions on tariff (point 10), oil and gas (point 11), while allowing Russia to use it as a gateway to the European market (point 12). These concessions are the foundation for Ukraine to rebuild for posterity and prosperity. Victory will be Ukrainian too.

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